减息预期推动金价创新高 可能出现短暂回调

作者: 联合早报   日期:2024-04-01 12:10 阅读:0  来源:联合早报  
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据联合早报报道

(新加坡综合电)在预期减息的推动下,黄金价格近期创下新高。分析师认为,金价要继续攀高,可能先进入短期修正。

上一周,黄金期货价格和现货价格涨了2.6%和2.98%,报每安士2238.4美元和2229.87美元。今年第一季,黄金期货价格和现货价格都分别涨了大约8%。

黄金在3月底、第一季末大涨,一方面是美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)前一周释放了维持今年三次减息、共75个基点的预测,带动金价劲扬。

另一方面,根据道明证券(TD Securities)大宗商品策略师加利(Daniel Ghali)分析,交易商有可能在月末或季末增加交易活动,并在耶稣受难日假日前完成平仓。

加利说,如果市场开始预期美国联邦储备局将扩大减息幅度,黄金可能会进一步上涨,但他也指出,近期买盘出现疲弱的迹象。

美国多组关键经济数据本周出炉

FXStreet分析师森盖泽(Eren Sengezer)指出,黄金无视美元持续走强,攀升至2200美元以上。“接下来这周市场焦点将转向美国公布的关键宏观经济数据。技术分析显示,黄金现货价格在下一轮走高之前,可能会先出现技术修正。”

本周的关键经济数据包括星期一(4月1日)发布ISM制造业采购经理指数(ISM Manufacturing PMI)、星期二(2日)发布的职位空缺和劳工流动率调查(JOLTS)报告,以及星期五(5日)的非农业就业(nonfarm payroll)数据等。

芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME)的美联储观察工具FedWatch显示,市场认为美联储在6月份维持政策利率不变的概率接近40%。

森盖泽说,如果就业报告显示劳动市场趋紧,投资者可能会放弃美联储6月减息的预测,甚至怀疑美联储会否在今年减息75个基点。“在这种情况下,黄金现货价格可能会大幅回调。如果非农就业数据疲弱,市场维持6月降息的预期,黄金则会维持看涨的势头。”

金价还有上涨空间

森盖泽认为,如果黄金能稳定维持在2220美元以上,此价位也转为支撑位,那么2300美元会是下一个阻力位。

尽管短期走势有些不确定,市场人士都认为,创新高的金价还有上涨空间。

盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)大宗商品策略主管汉森(Ole Hansen)说,美元和国债收益率变动带来的不利因素,并没有影响黄金的走势,这凸显市场持续有需求。

“在过去几周,我主要担心的是市场疲软迫使多头一连串清仓,但现在金价已经超过了2200美元,这种风险在继续减弱。”

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