据联合早报报道
(新加坡综合电)在预期减息的推动下,黄金价格近期创下新高。分析师认为,金价要继续攀高,可能先进入短期修正。
上一周,黄金期货价格和现货价格涨了2.6%和2.98%,报每安士2238.4美元和2229.87美元。今年第一季,黄金期货价格和现货价格都分别涨了大约8%。
黄金在3月底、第一季末大涨,一方面是美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)前一周释放了维持今年三次减息、共75个基点的预测,带动金价劲扬。
另一方面,根据道明证券(TD Securities)大宗商品策略师加利(Daniel Ghali)分析,交易商有可能在月末或季末增加交易活动,并在耶稣受难日假日前完成平仓。
加利说,如果市场开始预期美国联邦储备局将扩大减息幅度,黄金可能会进一步上涨,但他也指出,近期买盘出现疲弱的迹象。
美国多组关键经济数据本周出炉
FXStreet分析师森盖泽(Eren Sengezer)指出,黄金无视美元持续走强,攀升至2200美元以上。“接下来这周市场焦点将转向美国公布的关键宏观经济数据。技术分析显示,黄金现货价格在下一轮走高之前,可能会先出现技术修正。”
本周的关键经济数据包括星期一(4月1日)发布ISM制造业采购经理指数(ISM Manufacturing PMI)、星期二(2日)发布的职位空缺和劳工流动率调查(JOLTS)报告,以及星期五(5日)的非农业就业(nonfarm payroll)数据等。
芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME)的美联储观察工具FedWatch显示,市场认为美联储在6月份维持政策利率不变的概率接近40%。
森盖泽说,如果就业报告显示劳动市场趋紧,投资者可能会放弃美联储6月减息的预测,甚至怀疑美联储会否在今年减息75个基点。“在这种情况下,黄金现货价格可能会大幅回调。如果非农就业数据疲弱,市场维持6月降息的预期,黄金则会维持看涨的势头。”
金价还有上涨空间
森盖泽认为,如果黄金能稳定维持在2220美元以上,此价位也转为支撑位,那么2300美元会是下一个阻力位。
尽管短期走势有些不确定,市场人士都认为,创新高的金价还有上涨空间。
盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)大宗商品策略主管汉森(Ole Hansen)说,美元和国债收益率变动带来的不利因素,并没有影响黄金的走势,这凸显市场持续有需求。
“在过去几周,我主要担心的是市场疲软迫使多头一连串清仓,但现在金价已经超过了2200美元,这种风险在继续减弱。”
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Tip: It's the step after the last dot that caused this error, not those before it.
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Tip: If the failing expression is known to legally refer to something that's sometimes null or missing, either specify a default value like myOptionalVar!myDefault, or use [#if myOptionalVar??]when-present[#else]when-missing[/#if]. (These only cover the last step of the expression; to cover the whole expression, use parenthesis: (myOptionalVar.foo)!myDefault, (myOptionalVar.foo)??
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FTL stack trace ("~" means nesting-related):
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Java stack trace (for programmers):
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freemarker.core.InvalidReferenceException: [... Exception message was already printed; see it above ...]
at freemarker.core.InvalidReferenceException.getInstance(InvalidReferenceException.java:134)
at freemarker.core.UnexpectedTypeException.newDesciptionBuilder(UnexpectedTypeException.java:85)
at freemarker.core.UnexpectedTypeException.(UnexpectedTypeException.java:48)
at freemarker.core.NonHashException.(NonHashException.java:49)
at freemarker.core.Dot._eval(Dot.java:48)
at freemarker.core.Expression.eval(Expression.java:83)
at freemarker.core.DefaultToExpression._eval(DefaultToExpression.java:88)
at freemarker.core.Expression.eval(Expression.java:83)
at freemarker.core.DollarVariable.calculateInterpolatedStringOrMarkup(DollarVariable.java:100)
at freemarker.core.DollarVariable.accept(DollarVariable.java:63)
at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:330)
at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:336)
at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:336)
at freemarker.core.Environment.process(Environment.java:309)
at freemarker.template.Template.process(Template.java:384)
at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpFileHandler$11.doInFtp(FtpFileHandler.java:270)
at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpTemplate.execute(FtpTemplate.java:58)
at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpFileHandler.storeFile(FtpFileHandler.java:257)
at com.jspxcms.core.html.PInfo.doMakeHtml(PInfo.java:105)
at com.jspxcms.core.html.PInfo.makeHtml(PInfo.java:48)
at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl.makeInfo(HtmlServiceImpl.java:56)
at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$ca793f53.invoke()
at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor$1.proceedWithInvocation(TransactionInterceptor.java:99)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionAspectSupport.invokeWithinTransaction(TransactionAspectSupport.java:283)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor.invoke(TransactionInterceptor.java:96)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671)
at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$32e39db9.makeInfo()
at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl.updateHtml(InfoServiceImpl.java:879)
at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl.updateHtml(InfoServiceImpl.java:843)
at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl.save(InfoServiceImpl.java:155)
at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$3b2ee07e.invoke()
at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor$1.proceedWithInvocation(TransactionInterceptor.java:99)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionAspectSupport.invokeWithinTransaction(TransactionAspectSupport.java:283)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor.invoke(TransactionInterceptor.java:96)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671)
at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$3a31141a.save()
at com.jspxcms.ext.collect.CollectorImpl$CollectThread.doCollect(CollectorImpl.java:143)
at com.jspxcms.ext.collect.CollectorImpl$CollectThread.run(CollectorImpl.java:44)