IMF预测中国经济将持续下滑 中国代表反驳

作者: 联合早报   日期:2024-02-04 16:16 阅读:0  来源:联合早报  
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据联合早报报道

(华盛顿综合讯)国际货币基金组织(IMF)发布的最新报告预测,考虑到房地产危机、生育率下降和人口老龄化加速,中国经济增长速度将持续下滑,2028年经济增长率会下滑至3.5%。

IMF星期五(2月2日)发布关于中国经济的年度磋商报告。报告指出,由于房地产行业持续疲软、外部需求低迷,预计2024年中国经济增速将放缓至4.6%。

报告预计中国经济增速在中期内将持续下降。由于生产率增长乏力和人口老龄化等不利因素的影响,2028年中国经济增速将降至3.5%左右。

报告也说,中国经济前景面临着相当大的不确定性,如果房地产行业收缩幅度超过预期,会进一步拖累需求并打击信心。

对此预测,中国驻IMF代表执行董事张正鑫在报告的最后陈述中表示反对。他说,中国对自家的2024年经济增长以及中期增速,看法更为积极。

张正鑫称IMF报告对中国房地产市场风险的提示在一定程度上过于悲观,并反对报告中有关“中国去年采取了中性财政政策立场”的说法,称中国去年的财政政策立场是积极的。

他说,对中国经济增长的合理预测,既有助于稳定国内外对中国发展的信心,也有助于稳定对全球经济增长的信心,因此“建议工作人员审慎研究,合理判断中国经济的中期增长趋势”。

彭博社指出,中国与IMF就经济预测出现的分歧,凸显出北京对其经济负面评估非常敏感。

中国央视新闻星期六(2月3日)发布与IMF中国代表团团长钱德拉的专访,钱德拉强调4.6%的预测增速,比去年10月份的预测增长了0.4个百分点,并表示2024年中国经济的增长仍将高于全球平均水平。

需求仍不足

现实数据则显示,中国经济面临需求不足和通缩压力。据彭博社报道,中国猪肉价格持续疲软,临近农历新年,销量仍持续疲软。北京猪肉商说,尽管价格比前一年低了五分之一,销量却比正常假期季节少了三成多。

中国农业部数据显示,1月份第三周,全国猪肉均价每公斤24.22元人民币(4.57新元),同比下跌16.5%。

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freemarker.core.Environment.process(Environment.java:309) at freemarker.template.Template.process(Template.java:384) at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpFileHandler$11.doInFtp(FtpFileHandler.java:270) at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpTemplate.execute(FtpTemplate.java:58) at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpFileHandler.storeFile(FtpFileHandler.java:257) at com.jspxcms.core.html.PInfo.doMakeHtml(PInfo.java:105) at com.jspxcms.core.html.PInfo.makeHtml(PInfo.java:48) at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl.makeInfo(HtmlServiceImpl.java:56) at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$ca793f53.invoke() at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor$1.proceedWithInvocation(TransactionInterceptor.java:99) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionAspectSupport.invokeWithinTransaction(TransactionAspectSupport.java:283) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor.invoke(TransactionInterceptor.java:96) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671) at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$24b34a51.makeInfo() at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl.updateHtml(InfoServiceImpl.java:879) at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl.pass(InfoServiceImpl.java:526) at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$3b2ee07e.invoke() at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor$1.proceedWithInvocation(TransactionInterceptor.java:99) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionAspectSupport.invokeWithinTransaction(TransactionAspectSupport.java:283) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor.invoke(TransactionInterceptor.java:96) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671) at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$2c00c0b2.pass() at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController.auditPass(InfoController.java:614) at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$6206d7eb.invoke() at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157) at org.apache.shiro.spring.security.interceptor.AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor$1.proceed(AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:82) at org.apache.shiro.authz.aop.AuthorizingMethodInterceptor.invoke(AuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:39) at org.apache.shiro.spring.security.interceptor.AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.invoke(AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:115) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671) at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$5a4b906f.auditPass() at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor1413.invoke(Unknown Source) at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43) at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:498) at org.springframework.web.method.support.InvocableHandlerMethod.doInvoke(InvocableHandlerMethod.java:205) at org.springframework.web.method.support.InvocableHandlerMethod.invokeForRequest(InvocableHandlerMethod.java:133) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.ServletInvocableHandlerMethod.invokeAndHandle(ServletInvocableHandlerMethod.java:97) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.invokeHandlerMethod(RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.java:854) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.handleInternal(RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.java:765) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.AbstractHandlerMethodAdapter.handle(AbstractHandlerMethodAdapter.java:85) at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doDispatch(DispatcherServlet.java:967) at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doService(DispatcherServlet.java:901) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.processRequest(FrameworkServlet.java:970) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.doPost(FrameworkServlet.java:872) at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:681) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.service(FrameworkServlet.java:846) at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:764) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:231) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.tomcat.websocket.server.WsFilter.doFilter(WsFilter.java:52) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:112) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:61) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.executeChain(AdviceFilter.java:108) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.doFilterInternal(AdviceFilter.java:137) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66) at com.jspxcms.core.support.BackSiteFilter.doFilter(BackSiteFilter.java:50) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.executeChain(AdviceFilter.java:108) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.doFilterInternal(AdviceFilter.java:137) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter.executeChain(AbstractShiroFilter.java:450) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter$1.call(AbstractShiroFilter.java:365) at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.SubjectCallable.doCall(SubjectCallable.java:90) at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.SubjectCallable.call(SubjectCallable.java:83) at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.DelegatingSubject.execute(DelegatingSubject.java:387) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter.doFilterInternal(AbstractShiroFilter.java:362) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125) at org.springframework.web.filter.DelegatingFilterProxy.invokeDelegate(DelegatingFilterProxy.java:347) at org.springframework.web.filter.DelegatingFilterProxy.doFilter(DelegatingFilterProxy.java:263) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.orm.jpa.support.OpenEntityManagerInViewFilter.doFilterInternal(OpenEntityManagerInViewFilter.java:178) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at com.jspxcms.core.support.CsrfFilter.doFilterInternal(CsrfFilter.java:47) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.RequestContextFilter.doFilterInternal(RequestContextFilter.java:99) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.HttpPutFormContentFilter.doFilterInternal(HttpPutFormContentFilter.java:109) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.HiddenHttpMethodFilter.doFilterInternal(HiddenHttpMethodFilter.java:93) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.CharacterEncodingFilter.doFilterInternal(CharacterEncodingFilter.java:197) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.doFilter(ErrorPageFilter.java:128) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.access$000(ErrorPageFilter.java:66) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter$1.doFilterInternal(ErrorPageFilter.java:103) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.doFilter(ErrorPageFilter.java:121) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardWrapperValve.invoke(StandardWrapperValve.java:197) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardContextValve.invoke(StandardContextValve.java:97) at org.apache.catalina.authenticator.AuthenticatorBase.invoke(AuthenticatorBase.java:543) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardHostValve.invoke(StandardHostValve.java:135) at org.apache.catalina.valves.ErrorReportValve.invoke(ErrorReportValve.java:92) at org.apache.catalina.valves.AbstractAccessLogValve.invoke(AbstractAccessLogValve.java:698) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardEngineValve.invoke(StandardEngineValve.java:78) at org.apache.catalina.connector.CoyoteAdapter.service(CoyoteAdapter.java:367) at org.apache.coyote.http11.Http11Processor.service(Http11Processor.java:639) at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProcessorLight.process(AbstractProcessorLight.java:65) at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProtocol$ConnectionHandler.process(AbstractProtocol.java:882) at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.NioEndpoint$SocketProcessor.doRun(NioEndpoint.java:1647) at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.SocketProcessorBase.run(SocketProcessorBase.java:49) at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.ThreadPoolExecutor.runWorker(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:1191) at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.ThreadPoolExecutor$Worker.run(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:659) at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.TaskThread$WrappingRunnable.run(TaskThread.java:61) at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:750)