据联合早报报道
(华盛顿综合讯)国际货币基金组织(IMF)发布的最新报告预测,考虑到房地产危机、生育率下降和人口老龄化加速,中国经济增长速度将持续下滑,2028年经济增长率会下滑至3.5%。
IMF星期五(2月2日)发布关于中国经济的年度磋商报告。报告指出,由于房地产行业持续疲软、外部需求低迷,预计2024年中国经济增速将放缓至4.6%。
报告预计中国经济增速在中期内将持续下降。由于生产率增长乏力和人口老龄化等不利因素的影响,2028年中国经济增速将降至3.5%左右。
报告也说,中国经济前景面临着相当大的不确定性,如果房地产行业收缩幅度超过预期,会进一步拖累需求并打击信心。
对此预测,中国驻IMF代表执行董事张正鑫在报告的最后陈述中表示反对。他说,中国对自家的2024年经济增长以及中期增速,看法更为积极。
张正鑫称IMF报告对中国房地产市场风险的提示在一定程度上过于悲观,并反对报告中有关“中国去年采取了中性财政政策立场”的说法,称中国去年的财政政策立场是积极的。
他说,对中国经济增长的合理预测,既有助于稳定国内外对中国发展的信心,也有助于稳定对全球经济增长的信心,因此“建议工作人员审慎研究,合理判断中国经济的中期增长趋势”。
彭博社指出,中国与IMF就经济预测出现的分歧,凸显出北京对其经济负面评估非常敏感。
中国央视新闻星期六(2月3日)发布与IMF中国代表团团长钱德拉的专访,钱德拉强调4.6%的预测增速,比去年10月份的预测增长了0.4个百分点,并表示2024年中国经济的增长仍将高于全球平均水平。
需求仍不足
现实数据则显示,中国经济面临需求不足和通缩压力。据彭博社报道,中国猪肉价格持续疲软,临近农历新年,销量仍持续疲软。北京猪肉商说,尽管价格比前一年低了五分之一,销量却比正常假期季节少了三成多。
中国农业部数据显示,1月份第三周,全国猪肉均价每公斤24.22元人民币(4.57新元),同比下跌16.5%。
FreeMarker template error (DEBUG mode; use RETHROW in production!):
The following has evaluated to null or missing:
==> info.copyRight [in template "1/default/newsDetail.html" at line 717, column 30]
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Tip: It's the step after the last dot that caused this error, not those before it.
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Tip: If the failing expression is known to legally refer to something that's sometimes null or missing, either specify a default value like myOptionalVar!myDefault, or use [#if myOptionalVar??]when-present[#else]when-missing[/#if]. (These only cover the last step of the expression; to cover the whole expression, use parenthesis: (myOptionalVar.foo)!myDefault, (myOptionalVar.foo)??
----
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FTL stack trace ("~" means nesting-related):
- Failed at: ${info.copyRight.content!""} [in template "1/default/newsDetail.html" at line 717, column 28]
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Java stack trace (for programmers):
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freemarker.core.InvalidReferenceException: [... Exception message was already printed; see it above ...]
at freemarker.core.InvalidReferenceException.getInstance(InvalidReferenceException.java:134)
at freemarker.core.UnexpectedTypeException.newDesciptionBuilder(UnexpectedTypeException.java:85)
at freemarker.core.UnexpectedTypeException.(UnexpectedTypeException.java:48)
at freemarker.core.NonHashException.(NonHashException.java:49)
at freemarker.core.Dot._eval(Dot.java:48)
at freemarker.core.Expression.eval(Expression.java:83)
at freemarker.core.DefaultToExpression._eval(DefaultToExpression.java:88)
at freemarker.core.Expression.eval(Expression.java:83)
at freemarker.core.DollarVariable.calculateInterpolatedStringOrMarkup(DollarVariable.java:100)
at freemarker.core.DollarVariable.accept(DollarVariable.java:63)
at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:330)
at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:336)
at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:336)
at freemarker.core.Environment.process(Environment.java:309)
at freemarker.template.Template.process(Template.java:384)
at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpFileHandler$11.doInFtp(FtpFileHandler.java:270)
at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpTemplate.execute(FtpTemplate.java:58)
at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpFileHandler.storeFile(FtpFileHandler.java:257)
at com.jspxcms.core.html.PInfo.doMakeHtml(PInfo.java:105)
at com.jspxcms.core.html.PInfo.makeHtml(PInfo.java:48)
at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl.makeInfo(HtmlServiceImpl.java:56)
at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$ca793f53.invoke()
at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor$1.proceedWithInvocation(TransactionInterceptor.java:99)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionAspectSupport.invokeWithinTransaction(TransactionAspectSupport.java:283)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor.invoke(TransactionInterceptor.java:96)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671)
at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$24b34a51.makeInfo()
at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl.updateHtml(InfoServiceImpl.java:879)
at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl.pass(InfoServiceImpl.java:526)
at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$3b2ee07e.invoke()
at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor$1.proceedWithInvocation(TransactionInterceptor.java:99)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionAspectSupport.invokeWithinTransaction(TransactionAspectSupport.java:283)
at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor.invoke(TransactionInterceptor.java:96)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671)
at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$2c00c0b2.pass()
at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController.auditPass(InfoController.java:614)
at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$6206d7eb.invoke()
at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157)
at org.apache.shiro.spring.security.interceptor.AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor$1.proceed(AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:82)
at org.apache.shiro.authz.aop.AuthorizingMethodInterceptor.invoke(AuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:39)
at org.apache.shiro.spring.security.interceptor.AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.invoke(AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:115)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179)
at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671)
at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$5a4b906f.auditPass()
at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor1413.invoke(Unknown Source)
at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43)
at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:498)
at org.springframework.web.method.support.InvocableHandlerMethod.doInvoke(InvocableHandlerMethod.java:205)
at org.springframework.web.method.support.InvocableHandlerMethod.invokeForRequest(InvocableHandlerMethod.java:133)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.ServletInvocableHandlerMethod.invokeAndHandle(ServletInvocableHandlerMethod.java:97)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.invokeHandlerMethod(RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.java:854)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.handleInternal(RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.java:765)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.AbstractHandlerMethodAdapter.handle(AbstractHandlerMethodAdapter.java:85)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doDispatch(DispatcherServlet.java:967)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doService(DispatcherServlet.java:901)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.processRequest(FrameworkServlet.java:970)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.doPost(FrameworkServlet.java:872)
at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:681)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.service(FrameworkServlet.java:846)
at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:764)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:231)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166)
at org.apache.tomcat.websocket.server.WsFilter.doFilter(WsFilter.java:52)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:112)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:61)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.executeChain(AdviceFilter.java:108)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.doFilterInternal(AdviceFilter.java:137)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66)
at com.jspxcms.core.support.BackSiteFilter.doFilter(BackSiteFilter.java:50)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.executeChain(AdviceFilter.java:108)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.doFilterInternal(AdviceFilter.java:137)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter.executeChain(AbstractShiroFilter.java:450)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter$1.call(AbstractShiroFilter.java:365)
at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.SubjectCallable.doCall(SubjectCallable.java:90)
at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.SubjectCallable.call(SubjectCallable.java:83)
at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.DelegatingSubject.execute(DelegatingSubject.java:387)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter.doFilterInternal(AbstractShiroFilter.java:362)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125)
at org.springframework.web.filter.DelegatingFilterProxy.invokeDelegate(DelegatingFilterProxy.java:347)
at org.springframework.web.filter.DelegatingFilterProxy.doFilter(DelegatingFilterProxy.java:263)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166)
at org.springframework.orm.jpa.support.OpenEntityManagerInViewFilter.doFilterInternal(OpenEntityManagerInViewFilter.java:178)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166)
at com.jspxcms.core.support.CsrfFilter.doFilterInternal(CsrfFilter.java:47)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166)
at org.springframework.web.filter.RequestContextFilter.doFilterInternal(RequestContextFilter.java:99)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166)
at org.springframework.web.filter.HttpPutFormContentFilter.doFilterInternal(HttpPutFormContentFilter.java:109)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166)
at org.springframework.web.filter.HiddenHttpMethodFilter.doFilterInternal(HiddenHttpMethodFilter.java:93)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166)
at org.springframework.web.filter.CharacterEncodingFilter.doFilterInternal(CharacterEncodingFilter.java:197)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166)
at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.doFilter(ErrorPageFilter.java:128)
at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.access$000(ErrorPageFilter.java:66)
at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter$1.doFilterInternal(ErrorPageFilter.java:103)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.doFilter(ErrorPageFilter.java:121)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166)
at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardWrapperValve.invoke(StandardWrapperValve.java:197)
at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardContextValve.invoke(StandardContextValve.java:97)
at org.apache.catalina.authenticator.AuthenticatorBase.invoke(AuthenticatorBase.java:543)
at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardHostValve.invoke(StandardHostValve.java:135)
at org.apache.catalina.valves.ErrorReportValve.invoke(ErrorReportValve.java:92)
at org.apache.catalina.valves.AbstractAccessLogValve.invoke(AbstractAccessLogValve.java:698)
at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardEngineValve.invoke(StandardEngineValve.java:78)
at org.apache.catalina.connector.CoyoteAdapter.service(CoyoteAdapter.java:367)
at org.apache.coyote.http11.Http11Processor.service(Http11Processor.java:639)
at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProcessorLight.process(AbstractProcessorLight.java:65)
at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProtocol$ConnectionHandler.process(AbstractProtocol.java:882)
at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.NioEndpoint$SocketProcessor.doRun(NioEndpoint.java:1647)
at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.SocketProcessorBase.run(SocketProcessorBase.java:49)
at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.ThreadPoolExecutor.runWorker(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:1191)
at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.ThreadPoolExecutor$Worker.run(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:659)
at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.TaskThread$WrappingRunnable.run(TaskThread.java:61)
at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:750)