中国据报明年赤字率3% 拟发万亿特别国债

作者: 联合早报   日期:2023-12-18 18:19 阅读:0  来源:联合早报  
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据联合早报报道

(北京综合讯)英媒引述消息报道,中国政府的财政施策保持谨慎,计划将明年赤字率控制在3%,并可能发行特别国债。

据路透社星期五(12月15日)引述三名知情人士报道,中国领导层在本周的中央经济工作会议上同意,2024年的预算赤字将被控制在国内生产总值(GDP)的3%以内,不足的部分可能由不纳入赤字的特别国债来补充,以增加财政灵活性。消息人士透露,这些债券的规模可能达到一万亿元(人民币,下同,1868亿新元)。

中国通常将预算赤字率保持在3%或以下。今年10月中国宣布在四季度增发2023年国债一万亿元,预计将赤字率从3%提高到3.8%左右。报道说,新设立的赤字数字低于今年修订后的目标,表明北京方面希望保持财政纪律,不考虑明年实施“火箭筒”式大规模的财政刺激政策。

对于相关报道,中国国务院、财政部及国家发展和改革委员会未予置评。不过据新华社报道,中央经济工作会议强调,要继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,加强政策工具创新和协调配合。

据第一财经报道,中国证券业协会12月12日召开了证券基金行业首席经济学家会议。与会专家认为,前期中央财政增发一万亿特别国债,有助于推动基建投资保持较高增速。专家建议,2024年中央财政可适度提高赤字率水平,提质增效,促进提振内需和市场信心。

投资者正密切关注中国的财政状况。国际评级机构穆迪上周将中国主权信用评级展望从”稳定”调为”负面”,并对中国地方政府债务和房地产行业的风险发出了警告。

路透社引述知情人士说,中国可能会在2024年设定约5%的经济增长目标。但分析师表示,要实现与今年类似的增长水平,中国或需更大的财政支持,并在明年预算赤字中保留一定灵活性,以应对经济表现不佳的情况。

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