中国11月经济数据出炉 各领域复苏表现参差不齐

作者: 联合早报   日期:2023-12-18 18:19 阅读:0  来源:联合早报  
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据联合早报报道

中国经济复苏表现参差不齐,11月工业增加值同比实际增长6.6%,实现去年9月以来最强劲的增幅;房地产领域则持续疲弱,社会消费品零售总额增幅也低于预期。

中国国家统计局星期五(12月15日)发布的11月国民经济运行情况数据显示,11月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.6%,比上月加快2个百分点;环比增长0.87%。高增幅主要是受去年疫情期间同期的低基数衬托,但也大幅高于5.7%的市场预测均值。

11月份货物进出口总额同比增长1.2%,比上月加快0.3个百分点;其中,出口增长1.7%,结束了连续六个月的下降态势。

不过,中国整体经济复苏缓慢、各领域增长速度不均的情况继续凸显,其中房地产持续萎缩情况最为突出。

1月至11月的全国固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长2.9%,与今年首10个月持平。基础设施投资和制造业投资分别同比增长5.8%和6.3%,但房地产开发投资下降9.4%;商品房销售面积下降8%,商品房销售额下降5.2%,房屋新开工面积下降21.2%。

在消费方面,社会消费品零售总额同比增长10.1%,比上月加快2.5个百分点,但环比下降0.06%,同比增长幅度低于外界12.5%的预测。

中国失业率持平

中国的就业情况未见好转,11月的全国城镇调查失业率为5%,连续三个月保持在5%的水平。

本周的中共中央经济工作会议已指出,有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱、风险隐患仍然较多等因素,是中国当前主要的经济困难与挑战。

中国国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长刘爱华星期五在发布会上介绍11月经济数据时称,随着各项宏观政策发力显效,11月份国民经济持续回升向好。“但也要看到,外部不稳定不确定因素依然较多,国内需求仍显不足,经济回升向好基础仍需巩固。”

刘爱华说,中国消费将逐步从疫后恢复转向持续扩大,当前经济运行中存在的有效需求不足问题有望得到逐步缓解,价格低位运行状况也会得到改善,不会出现通货紧缩。

新加坡管理大学李光前商学院副教授傅方剑接受《联合早报》访问时研判,工业增加值的同比数据虽然没有太大的代表性,但相较10月增速仍增加了两个百分点,“这显示工业的恢复态势挺好”。

傅方剑说,工业活动回升较明显、固定资产投资在房地产领域持续下滑的情况下总体持平、消费领域也维持回升势态 ;这些迹象都反映出,中国官方年中以来的鼓励政策,以及频频释放要把发展重心放到经济上的信号正在显现初步效应。只要现有政策方向不改变,积极的发展趋势料将持续至明年。

易居研究院研究总监严跃进则指出,中国全国房地产开发投资额指标出现跌幅扩大态势,显示资金压力和企业信心等问题还是困扰了这个指标,当前的恢复基础并不牢固。

FreeMarker template error (DEBUG mode; use RETHROW in production!): The following has evaluated to null or missing: ==> info.copyRight [in template "1/default/newsDetail.html" at line 717, column 30] ---- Tip: It's the step after the last dot that caused this error, not those before it. ---- Tip: If the failing expression is known to legally refer to something that's sometimes null or missing, either specify a default value like myOptionalVar!myDefault, or use [#if myOptionalVar??]when-present[#else]when-missing[/#if]. (These only cover the last step of the expression; to cover the whole expression, use parenthesis: (myOptionalVar.foo)!myDefault, (myOptionalVar.foo)?? ---- ---- FTL stack trace ("~" means nesting-related): - Failed at: ${info.copyRight.content!""} [in template "1/default/newsDetail.html" at line 717, column 28] ---- Java stack trace (for programmers): ---- freemarker.core.InvalidReferenceException: [... Exception message was already printed; see it above ...] at freemarker.core.InvalidReferenceException.getInstance(InvalidReferenceException.java:134) at freemarker.core.UnexpectedTypeException.newDesciptionBuilder(UnexpectedTypeException.java:85) at freemarker.core.UnexpectedTypeException.(UnexpectedTypeException.java:48) at freemarker.core.NonHashException.(NonHashException.java:49) at freemarker.core.Dot._eval(Dot.java:48) at freemarker.core.Expression.eval(Expression.java:83) at freemarker.core.DefaultToExpression._eval(DefaultToExpression.java:88) at freemarker.core.Expression.eval(Expression.java:83) at freemarker.core.DollarVariable.calculateInterpolatedStringOrMarkup(DollarVariable.java:100) at freemarker.core.DollarVariable.accept(DollarVariable.java:63) at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:330) at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:336) at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:336) at freemarker.core.Environment.process(Environment.java:309) at freemarker.template.Template.process(Template.java:384) at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpFileHandler$11.doInFtp(FtpFileHandler.java:270) at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpTemplate.execute(FtpTemplate.java:58) at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpFileHandler.storeFile(FtpFileHandler.java:257) at com.jspxcms.core.html.PInfo.doMakeHtml(PInfo.java:105) at com.jspxcms.core.html.PInfo.makeHtml(PInfo.java:48) at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl.makeInfo(HtmlServiceImpl.java:56) at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$ca793f53.invoke() at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor$1.proceedWithInvocation(TransactionInterceptor.java:99) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionAspectSupport.invokeWithinTransaction(TransactionAspectSupport.java:283) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor.invoke(TransactionInterceptor.java:96) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671) at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$3864106.makeInfo() at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl.updateHtml(InfoServiceImpl.java:879) at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl.pass(InfoServiceImpl.java:526) at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$3b2ee07e.invoke() at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor$1.proceedWithInvocation(TransactionInterceptor.java:99) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionAspectSupport.invokeWithinTransaction(TransactionAspectSupport.java:283) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor.invoke(TransactionInterceptor.java:96) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671) at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$ad3b767.pass() at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController.auditPass(InfoController.java:614) at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$6206d7eb.invoke() at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157) at org.apache.shiro.spring.security.interceptor.AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor$1.proceed(AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:82) at org.apache.shiro.authz.aop.AuthorizingMethodInterceptor.invoke(AuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:39) at org.apache.shiro.spring.security.interceptor.AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.invoke(AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:115) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671) at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$3ede9ec1.auditPass() at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor1176.invoke(Unknown Source) at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43) at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:498) at org.springframework.web.method.support.InvocableHandlerMethod.doInvoke(InvocableHandlerMethod.java:205) at org.springframework.web.method.support.InvocableHandlerMethod.invokeForRequest(InvocableHandlerMethod.java:133) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.ServletInvocableHandlerMethod.invokeAndHandle(ServletInvocableHandlerMethod.java:97) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.invokeHandlerMethod(RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.java:854) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.handleInternal(RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.java:765) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.AbstractHandlerMethodAdapter.handle(AbstractHandlerMethodAdapter.java:85) at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doDispatch(DispatcherServlet.java:967) at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doService(DispatcherServlet.java:901) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.processRequest(FrameworkServlet.java:970) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.doPost(FrameworkServlet.java:872) at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:681) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.service(FrameworkServlet.java:846) at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:764) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:231) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.tomcat.websocket.server.WsFilter.doFilter(WsFilter.java:52) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:112) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:61) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.executeChain(AdviceFilter.java:108) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.doFilterInternal(AdviceFilter.java:137) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66) at com.jspxcms.core.support.BackSiteFilter.doFilter(BackSiteFilter.java:50) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.executeChain(AdviceFilter.java:108) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.doFilterInternal(AdviceFilter.java:137) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter.executeChain(AbstractShiroFilter.java:450) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter$1.call(AbstractShiroFilter.java:365) at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.SubjectCallable.doCall(SubjectCallable.java:90) at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.SubjectCallable.call(SubjectCallable.java:83) at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.DelegatingSubject.execute(DelegatingSubject.java:387) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter.doFilterInternal(AbstractShiroFilter.java:362) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125) at org.springframework.web.filter.DelegatingFilterProxy.invokeDelegate(DelegatingFilterProxy.java:347) at org.springframework.web.filter.DelegatingFilterProxy.doFilter(DelegatingFilterProxy.java:263) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.orm.jpa.support.OpenEntityManagerInViewFilter.doFilterInternal(OpenEntityManagerInViewFilter.java:178) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at com.jspxcms.core.support.CsrfFilter.doFilterInternal(CsrfFilter.java:47) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.RequestContextFilter.doFilterInternal(RequestContextFilter.java:99) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.HttpPutFormContentFilter.doFilterInternal(HttpPutFormContentFilter.java:109) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.HiddenHttpMethodFilter.doFilterInternal(HiddenHttpMethodFilter.java:93) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.CharacterEncodingFilter.doFilterInternal(CharacterEncodingFilter.java:197) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.doFilter(ErrorPageFilter.java:128) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.access$000(ErrorPageFilter.java:66) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter$1.doFilterInternal(ErrorPageFilter.java:103) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.doFilter(ErrorPageFilter.java:121) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardWrapperValve.invoke(StandardWrapperValve.java:197) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardContextValve.invoke(StandardContextValve.java:97) at org.apache.catalina.authenticator.AuthenticatorBase.invoke(AuthenticatorBase.java:543) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardHostValve.invoke(StandardHostValve.java:135) at org.apache.catalina.valves.ErrorReportValve.invoke(ErrorReportValve.java:92) at org.apache.catalina.valves.AbstractAccessLogValve.invoke(AbstractAccessLogValve.java:698) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardEngineValve.invoke(StandardEngineValve.java:78) at org.apache.catalina.connector.CoyoteAdapter.service(CoyoteAdapter.java:367) at org.apache.coyote.http11.Http11Processor.service(Http11Processor.java:639) at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProcessorLight.process(AbstractProcessorLight.java:65) at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProtocol$ConnectionHandler.process(AbstractProtocol.java:882) at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.NioEndpoint$SocketProcessor.doRun(NioEndpoint.java:1647) at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.SocketProcessorBase.run(SocketProcessorBase.java:49) at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.ThreadPoolExecutor.runWorker(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:1191) at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.ThreadPoolExecutor$Worker.run(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:659) at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.TaskThread$WrappingRunnable.run(TaskThread.java:61) at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:750)