美国降息预期提高金价劲升 本周料延续涨势

作者: 联合早报   日期:2024-03-11 14:43 阅读:0  来源:联合早报  
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据联合早报报道

(新加坡综合讯)美国联邦储备局主席鲍威尔的降息言论进一步激起投资者对黄金的兴趣,金价上周劲升逾4%,冲破每安士2100美元大关,创下历史新高,本周预料延续涨势。

鲍威尔上星期三(3月6日)出席美国国会听证会时说,美联储要让通货膨胀率降至2%目标的工作取得了进展,并称借贷成本可能因此而降低。他认为,如果经济大致上按照预期发展,那么今年某个时候开始放松政策限制可能是适当的。

市场对这一番释出鸽派信息的言论大为振奋。黄金上一周上扬4.61%,收报每安士2178.95美元。纽约商品期货交易所4月黄金期货收报每安士2186.20美元,较一周前上涨4.34%。

金价在过去16个月维持高涨水平,自2022年底上扬超过30%。信息服务商金拓(Kitco)最新调查显示,14名受访分析师当中,预测本周金价上升和持平的人数相同,各为六人或43%,只有两人(14%)看跌本周金价。

各国央行买黄金势头强劲 地缘政治风险带动黄金

世界黄金协会市场策略师瓦托尼(Joseph Cavatoni)说,市场押注美联储将降息推动金价上升,投资者期待降息的到来。另外,各国中央银行购买黄金的势头也保持强劲。

汇丰银行贵金属分析师斯蒂尔(James Steel)认为,地缘政治风险是另一个带动黄金市场高昂的因素。他说:“市场上能够称作为投资避风港的资产不多,而黄金在这些资产当中排名第一。”

分析师普遍认为,美联储的利率政策将继续左右金价走势。投资者原本期待美联储在3月份降息,但上个月强劲的通胀粉碎了他们的希望。如今他们正关注美联储是否会在6月份降息。

根据芝加哥商业交易所FedWatch工具的数据,目前市场预计6月份降息的概率升至超过70%,大部分受访者预期,美联储到时会降息25个基点。

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