习近平鼓励汽车家电以旧换新 分析:提振国内消费对冲外贸不利因素

作者: 联合早报   日期:2024-02-26 15:34 阅读:0  来源:联合早报  
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据联合早报报道

中共总书记习近平强调,加快产品更新换代是推动高质量发展的重要举措,要求鼓励汽车、家电等以旧换新。受访学者分析,中国高层最新政策部署,是为了进一步提振国内消费以驱动增长,同时对冲美欧限制中国汽车进口等外贸不利因素。

习近平上周五(2月23日)主持召开中共中央财经委员会会议时强调,实行大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新,将有力促进投资和消费;要鼓励汽车、家电等传统消费品以旧换新,推动耐用消费品以旧换新。

他还指出,物流是实体经济的“筋络”,联接生产和消费、内贸和外贸,必须有效降低全社会物流成本。

中国消费去年以来逐步复苏,国家统计局数据显示,去年社会消费品零售总额达47.15万亿元(人民币,下同,8.91万亿新元),比2022年增长7.2%,拉动国内生产总值(GDP)增长4.3个百分点。

但由于市场信心低迷,加上市场逐渐饱和,中国汽车销售今年开局不利。中国乘用车市场信息联席会数据显示,乘用车、新能源车销量今年1月分别环比下降15%、37%。

中国乘联会初步预估,因春节假期干扰,叠加消费者正按兵不动以待进一步降价,2月份乘用车零售市场销量同比将下降15.7%。

中国高层的最新政策部署可能提振中国汽车销量。汽车相关板块星期五表现亮眼。据金融数据服务商东方财富统计,汽车零部件板块、汽车服务板块当天分别上涨3.52%、3.23%。

新加坡管理大学李光前商学院副教授傅方剑接受《联合早报》访问时分析,中国经济持续疲弱,官方原以为通过去年疫情管制放开,就能自动释放民间消费力,但从结果来看显然成效欠佳,市场主动消费力量持续不足。

分析人士:预计政府将变相通过消费券及折扣提振消费

傅方剑研判,中国高层提出以旧换新,是以政府的力量引导消费,预计将变相通过消费券及折扣补贴,刺激民众加速购买汽车、大型家电等商品,进一步提振国内消费。

中国去年出口491万辆汽车、首次跃居世界首位后,美国据报考虑采用关税以外的措施,限制进口中国智能汽车及相关零部件;欧盟也对中国电动汽车发起了反补贴调查

傅方剑分析,中国目前面对复杂严峻的外贸形势,美欧消费力下降之际,还不断对华“去风险”,减少从中国进口商品。中国高层提出传统消费品以旧换新,也旨在对冲美欧限制中国汽车进口等不利因素,并通过刺激国内需求作为替代,加码扶持中国汽车产业发展。

傅方剑说,面对中国汽车产能持续加大,以及国内车企不断在产品价格和质量上展开“内卷”,刺激国内消费对产业发展是很好的提振。他也看到,中国目前明显加码做政策转弯,希望恢复到疫情前更注重市场的做法,由市场发挥主导作用,以进一步赢回外资对华投资信心。

中国作为全球最大电动汽车市场,竞争激烈导致规模较小的厂商被迫出局。据彭博社报道,去年在中国注册的电动汽车制造商约有100家,低于2019年的约500家。

另一方面,在外商对华直接投资跌至30年来新低之际,中国总理李强上周五在国务院常务会议上要求,把稳外资作为做好今年经济工作的重要发力点

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Exception message was already printed; see it above ...] at freemarker.core.InvalidReferenceException.getInstance(InvalidReferenceException.java:134) at freemarker.core.UnexpectedTypeException.newDesciptionBuilder(UnexpectedTypeException.java:85) at freemarker.core.UnexpectedTypeException.(UnexpectedTypeException.java:48) at freemarker.core.NonHashException.(NonHashException.java:49) at freemarker.core.Dot._eval(Dot.java:48) at freemarker.core.Expression.eval(Expression.java:83) at freemarker.core.DefaultToExpression._eval(DefaultToExpression.java:88) at freemarker.core.Expression.eval(Expression.java:83) at freemarker.core.DollarVariable.calculateInterpolatedStringOrMarkup(DollarVariable.java:100) at freemarker.core.DollarVariable.accept(DollarVariable.java:63) at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:330) at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:336) at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:336) at freemarker.core.Environment.process(Environment.java:309) at freemarker.template.Template.process(Template.java:384) at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpFileHandler$11.doInFtp(FtpFileHandler.java:270) at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpTemplate.execute(FtpTemplate.java:58) at com.jspxcms.common.file.FtpFileHandler.storeFile(FtpFileHandler.java:257) at com.jspxcms.core.html.PInfo.doMakeHtml(PInfo.java:105) at com.jspxcms.core.html.PInfo.makeHtml(PInfo.java:48) at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl.makeInfo(HtmlServiceImpl.java:56) at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$ca793f53.invoke() at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor$1.proceedWithInvocation(TransactionInterceptor.java:99) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionAspectSupport.invokeWithinTransaction(TransactionAspectSupport.java:283) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor.invoke(TransactionInterceptor.java:96) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671) at com.jspxcms.core.html.HtmlServiceImpl$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$24b34a51.makeInfo() at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl.updateHtml(InfoServiceImpl.java:879) at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl.pass(InfoServiceImpl.java:526) at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$3b2ee07e.invoke() at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor$1.proceedWithInvocation(TransactionInterceptor.java:99) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionAspectSupport.invokeWithinTransaction(TransactionAspectSupport.java:283) at org.springframework.transaction.interceptor.TransactionInterceptor.invoke(TransactionInterceptor.java:96) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671) at com.jspxcms.core.service.impl.InfoServiceImpl$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$2c00c0b2.pass() at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController.auditPass(InfoController.java:614) at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController$$FastClassBySpringCGLIB$$6206d7eb.invoke() at org.springframework.cglib.proxy.MethodProxy.invoke(MethodProxy.java:204) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$CglibMethodInvocation.invokeJoinpoint(CglibAopProxy.java:736) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:157) at org.apache.shiro.spring.security.interceptor.AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor$1.proceed(AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:82) at org.apache.shiro.authz.aop.AuthorizingMethodInterceptor.invoke(AuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:39) at org.apache.shiro.spring.security.interceptor.AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.invoke(AopAllianceAnnotationsAuthorizingMethodInterceptor.java:115) at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:179) at org.springframework.aop.framework.CglibAopProxy$DynamicAdvisedInterceptor.intercept(CglibAopProxy.java:671) at com.jspxcms.core.web.back.InfoController$$EnhancerBySpringCGLIB$$5a4b906f.auditPass() at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor1413.invoke(Unknown Source) at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43) at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:498) at org.springframework.web.method.support.InvocableHandlerMethod.doInvoke(InvocableHandlerMethod.java:205) at org.springframework.web.method.support.InvocableHandlerMethod.invokeForRequest(InvocableHandlerMethod.java:133) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.ServletInvocableHandlerMethod.invokeAndHandle(ServletInvocableHandlerMethod.java:97) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.invokeHandlerMethod(RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.java:854) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.annotation.RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.handleInternal(RequestMappingHandlerAdapter.java:765) at org.springframework.web.servlet.mvc.method.AbstractHandlerMethodAdapter.handle(AbstractHandlerMethodAdapter.java:85) at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doDispatch(DispatcherServlet.java:967) at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doService(DispatcherServlet.java:901) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.processRequest(FrameworkServlet.java:970) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.doPost(FrameworkServlet.java:872) at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:681) at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.service(FrameworkServlet.java:846) at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:764) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:231) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.tomcat.websocket.server.WsFilter.doFilter(WsFilter.java:52) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:112) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:61) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.executeChain(AdviceFilter.java:108) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.doFilterInternal(AdviceFilter.java:137) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66) at com.jspxcms.core.support.BackSiteFilter.doFilter(BackSiteFilter.java:50) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.executeChain(AdviceFilter.java:108) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AdviceFilter.doFilterInternal(AdviceFilter.java:137) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter.executeChain(AbstractShiroFilter.java:450) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter$1.call(AbstractShiroFilter.java:365) at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.SubjectCallable.doCall(SubjectCallable.java:90) at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.SubjectCallable.call(SubjectCallable.java:83) at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.DelegatingSubject.execute(DelegatingSubject.java:387) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter.doFilterInternal(AbstractShiroFilter.java:362) at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125) at org.springframework.web.filter.DelegatingFilterProxy.invokeDelegate(DelegatingFilterProxy.java:347) at org.springframework.web.filter.DelegatingFilterProxy.doFilter(DelegatingFilterProxy.java:263) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.orm.jpa.support.OpenEntityManagerInViewFilter.doFilterInternal(OpenEntityManagerInViewFilter.java:178) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at com.jspxcms.core.support.CsrfFilter.doFilterInternal(CsrfFilter.java:47) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.RequestContextFilter.doFilterInternal(RequestContextFilter.java:99) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.HttpPutFormContentFilter.doFilterInternal(HttpPutFormContentFilter.java:109) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.HiddenHttpMethodFilter.doFilterInternal(HiddenHttpMethodFilter.java:93) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.web.filter.CharacterEncodingFilter.doFilterInternal(CharacterEncodingFilter.java:197) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.doFilter(ErrorPageFilter.java:128) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.access$000(ErrorPageFilter.java:66) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter$1.doFilterInternal(ErrorPageFilter.java:103) at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107) at org.springframework.boot.web.support.ErrorPageFilter.doFilter(ErrorPageFilter.java:121) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:193) at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:166) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardWrapperValve.invoke(StandardWrapperValve.java:197) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardContextValve.invoke(StandardContextValve.java:97) at org.apache.catalina.authenticator.AuthenticatorBase.invoke(AuthenticatorBase.java:543) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardHostValve.invoke(StandardHostValve.java:135) at org.apache.catalina.valves.ErrorReportValve.invoke(ErrorReportValve.java:92) at org.apache.catalina.valves.AbstractAccessLogValve.invoke(AbstractAccessLogValve.java:698) at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardEngineValve.invoke(StandardEngineValve.java:78) at org.apache.catalina.connector.CoyoteAdapter.service(CoyoteAdapter.java:367) at org.apache.coyote.http11.Http11Processor.service(Http11Processor.java:639) at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProcessorLight.process(AbstractProcessorLight.java:65) at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProtocol$ConnectionHandler.process(AbstractProtocol.java:882) at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.NioEndpoint$SocketProcessor.doRun(NioEndpoint.java:1647) at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.SocketProcessorBase.run(SocketProcessorBase.java:49) at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.ThreadPoolExecutor.runWorker(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:1191) at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.ThreadPoolExecutor$Worker.run(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:659) at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.TaskThread$WrappingRunnable.run(TaskThread.java:61) at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:750)